A great deal has been written about the Palisades Fire and whether this event was an outlier or an indicator of what is to come. KatRisk has conducted a detailed analysis to better understand this risk.
Figure 1 displays a risk-score which is correlated to the probability of a wildfire burning within each pixel. The score considers the probability of ignition, vegetation type, a dryness index and topography (fires spread more rapidly downwind and when going uphill). Note that around Los Angeles, the area where the Palisades fire had the most impact is an area of particularly high probability of fire in the context of Southern California.
According to our analysis, the devastating Palisades fire was not, unfortunately, unexpected. Before the fire, the area was dry, incredibly windy, and full of vegetation as seen in Figure 2 below. There had been no appreciable rainfall in eight months with winds as high as 90-mph, winds that would qualify this event as a Category 1 hurricane.
While many vendor models underestimate the risk in this area (Insurance Insider), KatRisk can confidently say this event would lie in the 30 to 40-year return period probability range. KatRisk’s wildfire model, which is slated to be released later this year, is being created with events like the Palisades fire and accompanying Eaton fire in mind. Figure 3 provides the average risk index score (computed as mentioned above within Figure 1), by state and for the Palisades fire itself. This figure provides evidence that, far from an anomaly, the area where the Palisades fire occurred was bound to experience a catastrophic event, justifying the higher frequency of 30 to 40 year return interval estimate of the fire as mentioned above.
In 2024, KatRisk merged with Technosylva, the premier wildfire modeling company used by most utility companies within California and the wider United States. By combining Technosylva’s powered fire spread models with KatRisk’s cutting-edge approach to probabilistic catastrophe modelling, we are building a wildfire model that will enable our clients to gain comprehensive insight on the next Palisades fire before, during, and after the event.
If you would like to learn more about KatRisk’s upcoming wildfire model, our flood our SCS models please contact us today!
